World Cup 2026: Japan vs Sweden Tips, Odds & Prediction

* Odds from Betway, correct at time of writing.

Japan will host Sweden in Arlington, Texas, this Friday, with kickoff at 01:00 CAT. Japan sit second and need only a draw to confirm their place in the knockouts, while Sweden are third and need to win to guarantee their own spot. That gulf in what each side needs should define a compelling final group game. For all our World Cup betting tips, head to our dedicated section.

Japan

Japan have been excellent so far this tournament, holding the Netherlands to a draw before brushing Tunisia aside to put themselves on the brink of qualification. In my opinion Hajime Moriyasu may rotate slightly given a draw is enough, but their quick, direct attacking through the likes of Doan and Kubo, if he’s fit, remains a serious weapon. They defend as a unit and transition fast, which is exactly the profile that hurt Sweden in their heavy loss to the Dutch. My read on this is that Japan will be happy to let Sweden come to them and strike on the break.

Predicted Lineup: Z. Suzuki; Tomiyasu, Ito, Itakura; Nakamura, Tanaka, Kamada, Kubo; , Sano, Ueta, Ito.

Sweden 

Sweden must win to ensure their World Cup dream remains alive, but under Graham Potter they do carry a fearsome strike pairing in Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres. The problem is at the back, where they have not kept a clean sheet in seven matches and were torn apart in a heavy defeat to the Netherlands. In my opinion, having to chase the game will leave them dangerously exposed to Japan pace on the counter. They have the firepower to score, but I expect their defending to undo them again.

Predicted Lineup: Nordfeldt; Hien, Lagerbielke, Lindelof; Bernhardsson, Nygren, Karlstrom, Ayari, Gudmundsson; Gyokeres, Isak.

Sweden will throw bodies forward in search of the win they need, and that should make for an open, entertaining game with chances at both ends. I back Japan pace and composure to punish a leaky Swedish defence, even if Isak or Gyokeres get them on the scoresheet. My forecast: Japan 2 Sweden 1.

BTTS: Yes (1.65)

I am backing both teams to score, and my read on this is that Sweden have to attack and possess the strikers in Isak and Gyokeres to trouble anyone. Japan are fast and clinical going forward and have found the net in both games so far. With Sweden yet to keep a clean sheet in seven outings, goals at both ends look very likely. At 1.65 this is my favourite pick here.