World Cup 2026: Australia vs Paraguay Tips, Odds & Prediction

World Cup 2026 Australia vs Paraguay
Australia vs Paraguay Best Odds
* Odds from Betway, correct at time of writing.
Australia take on Paraguay at Levi's Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area for a Group D finale that decides who joins the United States in the knockouts, with kickoff at 04:00 CAT on Friday. The Socceroos sit second and know a draw is enough, while Paraguay must win to overturn a goal-difference deficit. For all our World Cup betting tips, head to our dedicated section.
Australia vs Paraguay Analysis
Australia
Australia hold the advantage going into this decider, sitting second on goal difference after a 2-0 win over Turkey and a 2-0 defeat to the United States, which means a draw sends them through. From my point of view Tony Popovic's side will set up to be hard to break down, trusting Harry Souttar and a deep block to frustrate Paraguay. Patrick Beach has been a solid presence in goal and the squad has come through the group without fresh injury concerns. I expect a disciplined, low-risk approach built on soaking up pressure and threatening on the counter through Nestory Irankunda, though Mathew Leckie’s potential absence with a hamstring injury certainly doesn’t help.
Predicted Lineup: Beach; Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; Irvine, O'Neill, Okon-Engstler, Velupillay; Irankunda.
Paraguay
Paraguay know nothing but a victory will guarantee qualification, even after beating Turkiye with only ten men for the second half following a heavy opening loss to the United States. In my opinion Gustavo Alfaro's side face a real problem here, because they are without the suspended Miguel Almiron, the man who gives them their creative spark from midfield. Gustavo Gomez will marshal a defence that has to stay solid while the team chases the game, but they’ll want to create more chances at the other end of the pitch than they did against Turkiye, despite winning that game. They have the attacking tools to win this, but breaking down a compact Australian block without their key playmaker is a tall order.
Predicted Lineup: Gill; Caceres, Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Cubas, Galarza; Gomez, Enciso; Pitta, Bobadilla.
Australia vs Paraguay Prediction
This has the makings of a tense, cagey decider in which Australia only need to avoid defeat and Paraguay are missing the creativity of Almiron. I expect both sides to be cautious early, with chances at a premium and the Socceroos content to keep their shape. A single goal could settle it either way, but I lean towards honours even being enough for Australia. My forecast: Australia 1 Paraguay 1.
Australia vs Paraguay Best Bet
Under 2.5 Goals (1.40)
I am backing under 2.5 goals and my read on this is that the stakes will produce a careful, low-tempo contest. Australia have every reason to keep things tight knowing a clean sheet guarantees progress, and Paraguay without Almiron lack the guile to force the game open quickly. At 1.40 it is short, but I expect few clear chances and a scoreline that stays low.
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James is a sports writer, editor and published author from Melbourne, Australia. He has close to a decade of experience writing about sports and triple that as an ardent follower of everything from AFL and cricket to NBA and surfing, and has also published his own sports book titled Sport’s Greatest Statistical Anomalies. If he’s not watching or playing sport, you’ll find James playing his guitars (when the house is empty, of course), trying out a new stout, or having a read.

