Soccer Betting Tips: Odds, Analysis and Best Bets for May 24, 2026

European finals week is here, with the Conference League final in Leipzig on Wednesday and the Champions League final in Budapest on Saturday. Add a Bundesliga relegation decider, a Portuguese top-flight playoff, and a Wembley League Two showpiece, and this is one of the most stacked soccer weeks of the year. For more tips and previews, visit bettingtop10.co.za.

From my point of view, this second leg is Paderborn's to lose. The first leg at the Volkswagen Arena finished goalless, which means everything remains to be decided at the Benteler Arena on Monday. Wolfsburg have been in dire form all season: they claimed just 7 wins from 34 Bundesliga matches and conceded 69 goals, one of the worst defensive records in the entire top flight. Christian Eriksen brings quality and experience in midfield but that alone cannot mask the structural fragility that has plagued this side throughout the campaign. Paderborn, by contrast, finished the second division season in third place with 62 points and a goal difference of plus 14, arriving here having been beaten in just two of their last 12 league games. Their key striker Bilbija has 15 goals this season and will lead the line with confidence. Paderborn do miss suspended defender Sticker, who was sent off in stoppage time of the first leg, but at home with the crowd behind them I believe their energy and motivation will outweigh that absence. Wolfsburg's historical record against Paderborn shows two wins and two draws from their last four matches, but I would caution against reading too much into older results given the clear gap in current form between these two sides.

Value Reasoning: I am backing Paderborn to win at home; they carry superior form into this decisive second leg, Wolfsburg have been one of the worst sides in the Bundesliga all season, and the home crowd at the Benteler Arena gives Paderborn every advantage.

In my opinion, this is Salford City's game to take at Wembley. Their form heading into this final is outstanding: six matches without defeat, including a win of three goals to one on aggregate over Grimsby Town in the semi-final, a result that showed they can score when it counts. Daniel Udoh has nine League Two goals this season plus one in the playoffs, and his combination with Kallum Cesay, who scored twice against Grimsby, has been one of the most effective attacking partnerships in the division. Salford's record in direct meetings with Notts County is compelling: five wins as many encounters, including both league meetings this campaign which finished two goals to one in Salford's favour each time. Notts County are far from toothless: Alassana Jatta has been outstanding all season with 15 goals and a shot accuracy close to 63 percent, and the club conceded just 51 goals in the league. But Notts reached Wembley via an aggregate win of a single goal over Chesterfield, and their playoff approach has been cautious and defensive. I expect Salford's superior firepower and their dominance in recent meetings with this opponent to prove decisive on the Wembley occasion.

Value Reasoning: I am backing Salford City to win; their dominance over Notts County in direct meetings this season is too significant to ignore, and six games without defeat in their most recent run confirms they are the side in better shape heading to Wembley.

I am backing Crystal Palace to lift their first European trophy in Leipzig, and their route to this final gives me plenty of confidence. Ismaila Sarr has been the outstanding performer in this tournament, scoring nine Conference League goals including a crucial goal in the second leg victory over Shakhtar Donetsk that sealed Palace's place in the final. He has scored in each of his last five Conference League matches, which is simply exceptional form at this level. Head coach Oliver Glasner knows what it takes to win a European final: he guided Eintracht Frankfurt to Europa League glory in 2022, and that experience in managing the pressure of a showpiece occasion is a significant advantage for Palace. Rayo Vallecano have had a tremendous campaign too: Alemao has four goals in the tournament and Alvaro Garcia and Isi Palazon have contributed three each, giving Rayo a varied and dangerous attacking threat. Their squad spoke openly before the final about their confidence, and winger Ilias Akhomach, who picked up an injury in the semi-final warm-up, is reported to be improving gradually ahead of Wednesday. Palace do carry defensive concerns: both Chris Richards and Chadi Riad were forced off injured in a recent league match, which limits Glasner's options at centre back. I believe, though, that Palace's forward quality and their coach's European pedigree will carry them through.

Value Reasoning: I am backing Crystal Palace to win; Sarr is in the form of his career with nine goals in the competition, Glasner has won a European final before, and Palace have the attacking quality and tactical experience to overcome Rayo Vallecano's confident but limited squad.

This second leg looks like it belongs to Casa Pia at their home ground. The first leg in Torres Vedras produced a goalless draw, but what impressed me most was Casa Pia's defensive resolve: they had defender Pedro Rosas sent off via a VAR decision in the 75th minute and still held on for the full result with 10 men. That kind of composure from a side fighting for their Primeira Liga survival is a strong signal of what they are capable of doing in this second leg. Casa Pia are an established top-flight side and, while their league season was a difficult one, they clearly possess the defensive discipline and the tactical maturity to manage a high-stakes playoff. Torreense, who finished third in Liga Portugal 2, have done exceptionally well to reach this stage, but stepping up to the challenge of a determined Primeira Liga side at their home ground is an entirely different proposition. I expect both teams to be conservative and the match to hinge on a single moment of quality. Casa Pia's home support should give them the edge they need to find that moment.

Value Reasoning: I am backing Casa Pia to win at home; their defensive resilience in holding firm with 10 men for 15 minutes in the first leg is the clearest possible evidence that they are the more composed and organised side, and home advantage will push them over the line.

In my opinion, Arsenal are the pick here, and I think the value in backing them is considerable at these odds. PSG enter Budapest as slight favourites at around 1.72, but their injury situation concerns me significantly. Ousmane Dembele, PSG's most dangerous attacker, has been managing a right calf problem after being substituted early in their final Ligue 1 match of the season; the club remains cautiously optimistic but a player managing a muscular issue into a Champions League final is a genuine risk. Both Nuno Mendes and Achraf Hakimi also carry injury concerns for Luis Enrique ahead of Saturday. Arsenal, by contrast, arrive as Premier League champions having gone 14 Champions League matches without defeat this season; they conceded just six goals across those 14 games, the best defensive record in the entire competition. Ben White is ruled out with a knee ligament injury and Jurrien Timber remains doubtful, but William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes, and Riccardo Calafiori form a back line that has been consistently excellent throughout the campaign. Mikel Merino has returned to full contact training after recovering from a foot injury and will offer an additional midfield option in Budapest. I back Arsenal to stay compact, press intelligently, and take their chance when PSG's injury-affected attack inevitably gives something away.

Value Reasoning: I am backing Arsenal to win; their defensive record of just six goals conceded in 14 Champions League matches this season is exceptional, PSG are carrying meaningful injury concerns to their first-choice attack, and the odds of around 2.20 represent genuine value.

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